December 13, 2022 | Archive

Altos Research: How far will home prices drop before January?

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A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring previously unavailable insights on the US housing market to those who need it. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country.see full bio

Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, digs into the data each week to offer real estate professionals insight on the real-time market.

The median price of single family homes in the U.S. is marching lower each week and is now $415,000. If this year follows the usual seasonal trend, we should have four more weeks of price declines until the second week of January, and land right around $400,000 before prices tick up for the spring. If prices don’t start rising in mid-January, though, that would be a bearish signal for the market. We’ll be watching closely!

Inventory is also continuing to drop as we approach the end of the year. Total available inventory of homes for sale right now in the U.S. is 535,000 single family homes, which is down 2.5% from last week. The decline in inventory is being accelerated by slightly lower mortgage rates. And of course, the weeks between Thanksgiving and New Years are always when inventory falls most rapidly.

3d rendering of a row of luxury townhouses along a street

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